The Marmara Earthquakes: A Tipping Point for Disaster

Management in Turkey?

Prof.Dr. Mikdat KADIOĞLUIstanbul Technical University

kadioglu@itu.edu.tr27-29th February, 2016

Outline

• Introductions• Key Factors/Three Rules of Epidemic

– The Law of the Few– The Stickiness Factor– The Power of Context

• Summary/Conclusions

•Introductions

4

Four Elements of

People-centered Early Early

Warning Warning SystemSystem, UN/ISDR

Istanbul will with high probability experience an event bigger than magnitude 7 EQ within at most

30 years.

PROBLEM: Anatolian Block moves westward relative to Eurasia plate at about 2.0 cm per year.

1999 Marmara EQ • 18,000 18,000 lives lost

• 10-15 10-15 billion US$ direct cost

East is east, west is west; Istanbul is something else!

One Dramatic Moment

(The change happens not gradually)

No Dramatic Moment (The change happens

gradually)

A Roadmap for Enhancing Istanbul's Disaster Resilience

"Tipping point for behavioural change towards

prospective disaster risk management ..."

• Thomas Schelling (Nobel Prize winner) first introduced the concept of “tipping points” in 1972.

• In 1950s, used by a few sociologists to indicate thresholds for social change

• In 2002, popularized by Malcolm Gladwell’s book to refer to an idea “taking off”

• Recently used to refer to a “point of no return” in global warming and climate change.

“Tipping point”

“The magic moment when ideas, messages, trends, fashions and social behaviour cross a threshold, tip and spread like wild fire and viruses do.”

The Gist of the Tipping Point

Contagious: Yawning

11

Four Elements of

People-centered Early Early

Warning Warning SystemSystem, UN/ISDR

12

Time Line for 17 August 1999 Earthquake•03:05 am: A strong earthquake happened at Marmara region. •Telephone communications failed, bases for cellular phones were inoperative, and electrical transmission lines were knocked down.•03:35 am: Kandilli Observatory declared that magnitude is 6,7- 6,8 and epicenter is in Marmara Sea. •04.30 am: Prime Ministry’s office declared Crisis Situation•06.30 am: Crisis Coordination Council, Crisis Assessment and Monitoring Council meet •10:00 am: Limited wireless communications belong to TRAC (Turkish Radio and Wireless Amateurs (Association) are working. •Media was the only information sources from damaged area.The 2nd day•Telephones, GSM systems and wireless systems were still out of service.•Communication problems makes coordination insufficient.•Public information systems were insufficient. •Rumors, provoking and misleading of affected population created a lot of problems. •Media and some scientists created a chaos situation.The 3rd day,•Limited communication was available, although telephone lines were overloadThe 5th day, •Both electricity and communications had largely been restored.

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For the frequent seismic activity in Turkey and in particular following the earthquake of august 17, 1999, it became apparent lack of systems for communicating timely and clearly to the people the basic instructions for the protection of life.

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15

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The NAFZ is situated only 25 km The NAFZ is situated only 25 km from the most populated and from the most populated and

industrialized area of Istanbul. industrialized area of Istanbul.

Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System

Early warning is defined as ‘the provision of timely

and effective information, through identified

institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to

avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response’ (ISDR 2004).

Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System

detection

infrastructure

applications,content≈✔

?≈✔

ALERTA

19

Four Elements of

People-centered Early Early

Warning Warning SystemSystem, UN/ISDR

Changing styles in Turkish Media for disaster news

1939 – Erzincan earthquakeTraces of the military administration- Drawthe rhetoric of national unity and cooperation

Dr. Selma Koç, 2004

Changing styles in Turkish Media for disaster news

• 1966-Mus (Varto) Earthquake

• Scientific and religious rhetoric,

• political criticism and corruption,

• questioning of State authority

Dr. Selma Koç, 2004

Changing styles in Turkish Media for disaster news

1999-Marmara Earthquake•Blame the government and institutions,•Support to NGOs efforts•Creating disaster myths

Dr. Selma Koç, 2004

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http://www.guvenliyasam.org/en

Risk Communication Strategy

Safe Life Trainings Evalution Research Results

Preparation Against the DisastersYou said you have done some preparations against the disasters. Can you tell me if you have done any of the following?

 Base Trainees Public

1.000 1.000

To fasten up the stuff at home

To detect safe zones at home

To get mandatory earthquake insurance

To prepare family disaster plan

Safe Life Trainings Evalution Research Results

To practice drop-cover-hold

To prepare emergency information card

To plan with family members what to do after a disaser

Preparations Against the DisastersYou said you have done some preparations against the disasters. Can you tell me if you have done any of the following?

Rates of Growth and Decay

nonlinear, tipping

time

miti

gatio

n

miti

gatio

n

time

wished realized

Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point is a good lens through which to view Disaster Risk

Communication. 

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–The Law of the Few

Media and other warning tools

The goals of the media ( profit ), real scientist and state may not always coincide!

Organization for Disaster Response for National and Provincial Level

COMMAND

OPERATIONS PLANNINGLOGISTICS FINANCE/ADMIN

PIO, Public Information

Officer

According to Gladwell, a

salesman must be:

–Charismatic

–Communicative

–Persuasive• Verbally

• Non-verbally

Mobilization of Community Leaders, NGOs

Tuzla Yayla Mahallesi

Mobilization of Community Mayors

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Mobilization of Community Children

- A message makes an impact and doesn’t go in one ear and out the other.

- What makes a song or a movie line, TV commercial, etc. “sticky” and could not get out of your mind for a long period of time?

–The Stickiness FactorThe “infectiousness” of the “message” itself

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The stickiness factor•idea, message, or product has to be “sticky” or inherently attractive•idea must be memorable, practical, personal, novel•hard to manufacture this feature

–The Power of Context• Change the background, change the mind…

The power of cropping and contex

The Broken Windows Theory

the environment dictate ones’ behavior?“it is not so much the actual broken window that is important, but rather the message the people receive from the broken window” (Wikipedia – Broken Windows Theory)

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Summary Mass media is imperative in communicating news and information to the public. However, Turkish press has largely failed in advocating preparedness and mitigation to the public.

Starting epidemics by media, etc. requires concentrating resources in a few key areas, such as connectors, mavens, salesmen, hubs and authorities…

Tipping points are very important, because it is faster, less expensive and perhaps longer-lasting…

ARIGATO GOZAIMASU!..ARIGATO GOZAIMASU!..