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Parasitoids may Determine Plant Fitness—A Mathematical Model Based on Experimental Data

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J. theor. Biol. (2001) 212, 295 } 302 doi:10.1006/jtbi.2001.2374, available online at http://www.idealibrary.com on Parasitoids may Determine Plant Fitness=A Mathematical Model Based on Experimental Data JOYDEV CHATTOPADHAYAY*,RAMRUP SARKAR*,MARIA ELENA FRITZSCHE-HOBALLAH-, TED C. J. TURLINGS- AND LOUIS-FE D LIX BERSIER-? *Embryology Research ;nit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B.¹. Road, Calcutta 700 035, India, and -Institut de Zoologie, ;niversite H de Neucha L tel, Case postale 2, 2007 Neucha L tel, Switzerland (Received on 17 January 2001, Accepted in revised form on 14 June 2001) The present paper deals with the problem of enhancement of plant "tness due to parasitization of herbivores. The experimental evidence for such situations is reviewed. Two mathematical models, plant}herbivore (two trophic) and plant}herbivore}parasitoid (three trophic) are considered to analyse the experimental observations. The e!ect of environmental #uctuation in the tritrophic system is also observed and optimum values of the inaccessible parameters involved in the system are estimated for purposes of biological control. ( 2001 Academic Press 1. Introduction The role of induced plant defences against herbi- vores is currently receiving much attention from both fundamental and applied ecologists. These defences, which are activated or increased in re- sponse to herbivory, may be grouped into two categories, direct and indirect defences. Induced direct defences can be mediated by toxins, repel- lents, digestibility reducers, spines and thorns, and have been reported since 1970 for more than 100 plant species within 34 families (Karban & Baldwin, 1997). A few studies on direct plant defences have shown that herbivore-induced chemical changes enhances plant "tness under "eld conditions (e.g. Baldwin, 1999; Agrawal & Karban, 1999; Agrawal, 1998, 1999). Indirect defences involve the participation of a third-trophic level, the natural enemies of the herbivores. One example of indirect defence is the ?Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: louis-felix.bersier@unine.ch attraction of ants by plants with domita and/or food and it has been well documented that this may reduce herbivory and enhance plant "tness (e.g. Janzen, 1966; McKey, 1988; Oliveira, 1997). It has also been suggested that herbivore-induced emissions of plant volatiles serve to attract pred- ators and parasitoids of herbivores (Vet & Dicke, 1992; Turlings & Benrey, 1998). This form of signalling by plants has been reported since 1980 for more than 20 plant species in 13 families (for review, see Dicke, 1999). However, evidence that plants bene"t from the attraction of natural enemies by induced volatiles has been lacking and several authors have stressed the need for such evidence, particularly for the attraction of parasitoids (Faeth, 1994; van der Meijden & Klinkhamer, 2000; Hare, 2001). Currently, only three studies present experimental evidence showing increases in "tness (seed production) by herbivore-infested plants as a result of the action of parasitoids (see below). In this paper, we analyse these experimental "ndings using two 0022}5193/01/190295#08 $35.00/0 ( 2001 Academic Press
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J. theor. Biol. (2001) 212, 295}302doi:10.1006/jtbi.2001.2374, available online at http://www.idealibrary.com on

Parasitoids may Determine Plant Fitness=A Mathematical Model Basedon Experimental Data

JOYDEV CHATTOPADHAYAY*, RAMRUP SARKAR*, MARIA ELENA FRITZSCHE-HOBALLAH-,TED C. J. TURLINGS- AND LOUIS-FED LIX BERSIER-?

*Embryology Research ;nit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B.¹. Road, Calcutta 700 035, India, and-Institut de Zoologie, ;niversiteH de NeuchaL tel, Case postale 2, 2007 NeuchaL tel, Switzerland

(Received on 17 January 2001, Accepted in revised form on 14 June 2001)

The present paper deals with the problem of enhancement of plant "tness due to parasitizationof herbivores. The experimental evidence for such situations is reviewed. Two mathematicalmodels, plant}herbivore (two trophic) and plant}herbivore}parasitoid (three trophic) areconsidered to analyse the experimental observations. The e!ect of environmental #uctuationin the tritrophic system is also observed and optimum values of the inaccessible parametersinvolved in the system are estimated for purposes of biological control.

( 2001 Academic Press

1. Introduction

The role of induced plant defences against herbi-vores is currently receiving much attention fromboth fundamental and applied ecologists. Thesedefences, which are activated or increased in re-sponse to herbivory, may be grouped into twocategories, direct and indirect defences. Induceddirect defences can be mediated by toxins, repel-lents, digestibility reducers, spines and thorns,and have been reported since 1970 for more than100 plant species within 34 families (Karban& Baldwin, 1997). A few studies on direct plantdefences have shown that herbivore-inducedchemical changes enhances plant "tness under"eld conditions (e.g. Baldwin, 1999; Agrawal &Karban, 1999; Agrawal, 1998, 1999).

Indirect defences involve the participation ofa third-trophic level, the natural enemies of theherbivores. One example of indirect defence is the

?Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.E-mail: [email protected]

0022}5193/01/190295#08 $35.00/0

attraction of ants by plants with domita and/orfood and it has been well documented that thismay reduce herbivory and enhance plant "tness(e.g. Janzen, 1966; McKey, 1988; Oliveira, 1997).It has also been suggested that herbivore-inducedemissions of plant volatiles serve to attract pred-ators and parasitoids of herbivores (Vet & Dicke,1992; Turlings & Benrey, 1998). This form ofsignalling by plants has been reported since 1980for more than 20 plant species in 13 families (forreview, see Dicke, 1999). However, evidence thatplants bene"t from the attraction of naturalenemies by induced volatiles has been lackingand several authors have stressed the need forsuch evidence, particularly for the attraction ofparasitoids (Faeth, 1994; van der Meijden &Klinkhamer, 2000; Hare, 2001). Currently, onlythree studies present experimental evidenceshowing increases in "tness (seed production) byherbivore-infested plants as a result of the actionof parasitoids (see below). In this paper, weanalyse these experimental "ndings using two

( 2001 Academic Press

296 J. CHATTOPADHAYAY E¹ A¸.

mathematical models of population dynamics inwhich we consider a plant}herbivore system (twotrophic), and a plant}herbivore}parasitoid sys-tem (three trophic). In the two-trophic system, wehave observed that plant seed production candecrease considerably due to the introduction ofa herbivore, while in the three-trophic system wehave observed that a parasitoid may act asa stabilizing agent in a plant}herbivore system.In this latter model, we have also incorporateda periodic disturbance in the herbivore popu-lation and have calculated an optimal level ofparasitoid growth for which the plants "tnessincreases, by using a technique developed bySarkar et al. (2001).

2. Experimental Evidence for ParasitoidsEnhancing Plant Fitness

It is generally recognized that parasitoids canbe an important mortality factor of herbivores,and that this may reduce the overall negativeimpact of herbivores on plants. The successful useof parasitoids as biological control agents againstherbivorous pests attests to the fact that they canhave a positive impact on plant performance.This is usually seen in the context of parasitoidssuppressing the population density of the pests,and thus a!ecting the degree of subsequent plantinfestation. However, individual plants may alsodirectly bene"t from the action of a parasitoid ifparasitization of herbivores leads to a signi"cantreduction of their lifetime consumption. To date,

TABL

Seed production by plants (mean$S.E) that were suherbiv

Tritrophic system Control(undamaged)

plants

H. spinosa}Ceutorhynchus sp.}3 chalcid parasitoids*

1.28$0.03

A. thaliana}Pieris rapae} (a) 4257$294Cotesia rubecula- (b) 6065$571

Z. mays}Spodoptera littoralis}Cotesia marginiventris?

597$67

*GoH mez & Zamora (1994), seeds per fruit.-van Loon et al. (2000), seeds per plant; (a) A. thaliana ecot?Fritzsche-Hoballah & Turlings (2001), seeds per plant.

three studies have presented conclusive evidencethat parasitoids can enhance plant "tness by af-fecting the consumption rate of their hosts.

Gomez & Zamora (1994) demonstrated atop}down e!ect by chalcid parasitoids that attacka seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus sp.) on a woodycrucifer Hormathophylla spinosa. In exclusion ex-periments in the "eld, they found that in thepresence of the parasitoids, plants that were at-tacked by the weevil produced more seeds perfruit than weevil-infested plants without para-sitoids. The parasitoids reduced weevil-in#ictedseed damage to such an extent that the plantsproduced on average 173% more seeds ascompared to plants with unparasitized larvae(Table 1).

Van Loon et al. (2000) studied a tritrophicsystem comprising Arabidopsis thaliana (Brass-icaceae), Pieris rapae (Lepidoptera: Pieridae)caterpillars that specialize in brassicaceousplants and the parasitoid Cotesia rubecula(Hymenoptera: Braconidae). In a greenhouseexperiment, individual A. thaliana plants wereeither (a) left undamaged, (b) subjected to feedingdamage by an unparasitized P. rapae larvae, (c)subjected to feeding by a parasitized P. rapaelarvae, or (d) mechanically damaged. As a resultof parasitization, consumption of leaf tissue byP. rapae decreased dramatically, resulting in asmuch as 250% more seeds produced by plantswith parasitized larvae.

In a similar study, we found that young maizeplants infested by a single larva of the noctuid

E 1bjected to feeding by unparasitized and parasitizedores

Damaged by&&healthy''herbivores

Damaged byparasitizedherbivores

Decreasedue to

herbivore

Increasedue toparasite

0.15$0.02 0.41$0.09 88% 173%

876$101 3066$208 79% 250%1665$174 4569$608 73% 175%362$10 535$53 39% 48%

ype 1, (b) A. thaliana ecotype 2.

PLANT FITNESS*MODEL AND EXPERIMENT 297

moth Spodoptera littoralis will produce about48% more seeds at maturity, if the larva is para-sitized by the braconid Cotesia marginiventris(Fritzsche-Hoballah & Turlings, 2001). The re-sults of these studies, which are summarized inTable 1, all show the considerable potential ofparasitoids to increase the "tness of individualplants.

We are now in a position to formulate theabove experimental observations in terms ofmathematical modelling.

3. The Mathematical Model for thePlant+Herbivore System

Let x be the density of plant biomass andy denotes the density of the herbivore at time t. Inthe absence of herbivore, the plant populationgrows in a logistic manner with an intrinsic rateof increase r and environmental carrying capacityK. Let us also assume that the rate at which theplant population is eaten by the herbivore isproportional to the product of the two popula-tion sizes and is denoted by a. Let us also assumethat s denotes the death rate of herbivores andb is the conversion factor of herbivores. From theabove assumptions, we can now write down thefollowing well-known basic mathematical modelof the plant}herbivore dynamical system:

dxdt

"rxA1!xKB!axy,

dydt

"!sy#bxy, (1)

where r, s, a, b, K are all positive constants.The possible steady states of eqn (1) are

E0: (0, 0), E

1: (K, 0), E

*: (x

*, y

*) where x

*"s/b,

y*"r/a (1!s/bK).The positive equilibrium E

*exists if bK's.

Let us now compare these mathematical re-sults with those of experimental observations. Inexperiments, we observed that the yield of a plantdecreases due to herbivore attack. First we studythis behaviour in terms of the size of the equilib-rium values. The size of the positive equilibrium(plant) is K when there is no herbivore (equilib-rium E

1), and in the presence of the herbivore, the

size of the positive equilibrium is E*(x

*, y

*). Now

comparing these two equilibria for the plantpopulation, we "nd that K!s/b'0 (conditionfor the existence of E

*). This shows that the yield

of plant production decreases with the introduc-tion of the unparasitized herbivore (see Table 1).

The local stability properties of the systemaround equilibrium points are well known, forexample see Maynard Smith (1974). We are justmentioning the main results. System (1) aroundE0

is unstable (saddle), and the existence ofE*

implies that system (1) around E1

is alsounstable (saddle). The population will exhibita monotonic decline to equilibrium if rs'4bK(bK!s), or it will oscillate either side of theequilibrium with decreasing amplitude if rs(4bK(bK!s). The stability results of the systemalso support the experimental "ndings.

In the next section, we introduce parasitoids inthe plant}herbivore system and show that para-sitism has a stabilizing e!ect on the system.

4. The Mathematical Model for thePlant}Herbivore}Parasite System

Let z denotes the density of the parasite popu-lation at time t. Let us assume that the number ofattacks per unit time per herbivore is propor-tional to the density of the parasite population,and the transmission parameter is denoted by c.Let the rate of increase of the parasite populationbe denoted by d, and the death rate of the para-site population by k. With the above assump-tions, the model eqn (1) can be reformulated as

dxdt

"rxA1!xKB!axy,

dydt

"!sy#bxy!cyz,

dzdt

"dyz!kz. (2)

The possible steady states of eqn (2) areE@0: (0, 0, 0), E@

1: (K, 0, 0), E@

2: (s/b, r/a(1!s/bK),

0), E@*: (x@

*, y@

*, z@

*) where x@

*"K (1!ak/dr ),

y@*" k/d, z@

*" 1/c (!s # bK (1 ! ak/dr) ).

The positive equilibrium E@*

exists if d'akbK/r(bK!s) .

298 J. CHATTOPADHAYAY E¹ A¸.

Here, we also compare the size of the equilib-rium (plant) in a way similar to that in the pre-vious section. The size of the plant population forthe plant}herbivore system is s/b and for thetritrophic system is K(1!ak/dr). Comparingthese two values, we obtain K(1!ak/dr)!s/b'0 (for the existence of the positive equilib-rium E@

*). This result shows that parasitization of

the herbivore by the parasitoids increases plant"tness, as indicated by the experimental results(see Table 1).

By computing the variational matrices aroundthe equilibria of system (2), it can be easily shownthat E@

0is always unstable (saddle), and the exist-

ence of E@2

implies that E@1

is also unstable(saddle). It is also to be noted here that if theparasite death rate k has a lower threshold valuegiven by dr/a (1!s/bK), then system (2) aroundE@2

will exhibit monotonic or oscillating declineto the equilibrium value. The parasite populationwill tend to extinction, i.e. the tritrophic systemwill behave as two-trophic system. On the otherhand, if k(dr/a (1!s/bK) then the three-trophic system will persist.

The characteristic equation of system (2)around E@

*is given by

p3j3#p

2j2#p

1j#p

0"0, (3)

where p3"1, p

2"rx@

*/K , p

1"cdy@

*z@*#abx@

*y@*

and p0"(cdr/K)x@

*y@*z@*.

By using Routh}Hurwitz criteria, it can beeasily shown that system (2) around E@

*is locally

asymptotically stable and the role of parasitismin the tritrophic system is clear.

Environmental disturbances always exist innature. We are now ready to consider the trit-rophic model in which the growth rate of theherbivore is not constant, but is able to #uctuate.We have already shown that for the tritrophicsystem a lower threshold value (d) is required forstability. In the next section, we shall estimate theoptimal value of d for the tritrophic system topersist under environmental #uctuation.

5. The Mathematical Model for thePlant}Herbivore}Parasite System with

Environmental Fluctuation

By introducing environmental periodicity inthe form of additive periodic #uctuation on the

herbivore, we shall investigate the dynamical be-haviour of system (2). The behaviour of this sys-tem in a periodic environment will be consideredwithin the framework of the following model:

dxdt

"rxA1!xKB!axy,

dydt

"!sy#bxy!cyz#g(t)y,

dzdt

"dyz!kz, (4)

where g(t)"a cosj1t#bsin j

1t, (!R(t(R)

is the periodic #uctuation and a, b, j1

are realconstants. Substituting X"logx, >"log y,Z"log z and using the transformationu"X!X*, v">!>*, w"Z!Z*, respec-tively, we rewrite the linearized system as

dudt

"!

rx*K

u!ay*v,

dvdt

"g (t )#bx*u!cz*w,

dwdt

"dy*v, (5)

where (x*, y*, z*) is the positive equilibrium ofsystem (4) without #uctuation (from now on weshall use (x*, y*, z*) in place of (x@

*, y@

*, z@

*).

By eliminating u, v, w, respectively, from (5) weget

d3udt3

#Ad2udt2

#Bdudt

#Cu"F1(t),

d3vdt3

#Ad2vdt2

#Bdvdt

#Cv"F2(t),

d3wdt3

#Ad2wdt2

#Bdwdt

#Cw"F3(t), (6)

where A"ay*!bx*, B"!abx*y*, C"!(rdc/K)x*y*z* and F

1(t)"!(rx*/K) (dg/dt), F

2(t)"

d2g/dt2#ay* (dg/dt), F3(t)"!(rdx*y*/K)g.

PLANT FITNESS*MODEL AND EXPERIMENT 299

In order to "nd the solutions of the aboveequations we use the approach of Hoel et al.(1993); the solutions are given by

u(t)"u(0)/1(t)#u@(0)/

2(t)#u@@ (0)/

3(t)#g

1(t),

v (t)"v (0)/1(t)#v@(0)/

2(t)#v@@ (0)/

3(t)#g

2(t),

w(t)"w(0)/1(t)#w@(0)/

2(t)#w@@(0)/

3(t)#g

3(t),

(7)

where /i(t)"er

it, (i"1, 2, 3) and

r1(t)"p#q!

A3

when G2#4H3'0

"2p!A3

when G2#4H3"0

"2r@(1/3) cosh@3!

A3

when G2#4H3(0.

r2(t)"!

12(p#q)#

J32

(p!q) i!A3

when G2#4H3'0

"!p!A3

when G2#4H3"0

"2r@(1/3) cosh@#2n

3!

A3

when G2#4H3(0.

r3(t)"!

12

(p#q)!J32

(p!q) i!A3

when G2#4H3'0

"!p!A3

when G2#4H3"0

"2r@(1/3) cosh@#4n

3!

A3

when G2#4H3(0

with G"(9C!3AB#2A2)/9, H"(3B!A2)/9,p3"1

2(!G#JG2#4H3), q3"1

2(!G!

JG2#4H3), r@"Ja@2#b@2, a@"r@ cos h@,b@"r@ sin h@, a@"!G/2, b@"!(i/2)JG2#4H3and u(0)"log (x(0)/x*), v(0)"log (y (0)/y*),w(0)"log(z(0)/z*), u@ (0)"r(1!x(0)/K)!ay(0),v@ (0)"!s#bx(0)!cz (0), w@ (0)"dy(0)!k,u@@ (0)"1/x (0) [r!2rx (0)/K!ay (0)]![r (1!x(0)/K!ay (0)]2, v@@(0)"1/y(0) [!s#bx(0)!cz(0)]![!s#bx(0)!cz (0)]2, w@@ (0)"1/z(0) [dy(0)!k]![dy(0)!k]2, g

1(t)"!rx*/

K (acos j1t#b sinj

1t), g

2(t)"(aay*#bj

1)

cosj1t# (bay*!aj

1) sinj

1t, g

3(t)"!rdx*y*/

j1(a sin j

1t !bcosj

1t).

Now, without periodic #uctuation eqns (7)take the following form:

u(t)"u (0)/1(t)#u@(0)/

2(t)#u@@ (0)/

3(t),

v (t)"v (0)/1(t)#v@(0)/

2(t)#v@@ (0)/

3(t),

w(t)"w(0)/1(t)#w@(0)/

2(t)#w@@ (0)/

3(t). (8)

In this case, Su(t)T"u(0)S/1(t)T#u@(0)S/

2(t)T

#u@@(0)S/3(t)T and for tPR, S/

i(t)TP0,

(i"1, 2, 3). Then Sx (t)T"x* and similarlySy(t)T"y* and Sz(t)T"z* but the variances p2

x,

p2y, p2

zare all zero. This result shows that the

persistence condition implies the stability of thesystem.

We are now in a position to see the e!ect ofperiodic #uctuation on the system. Recently,Sarkar et al. (2001) developed a method to esti-mate the optimal values of the parameters andthe safe region for an eco-epidemiological modelof Tilapia and Pelican populations proposed byChattopadhyay & Bairagi (2001). Here we shalluse their method by generalizing it to the trit-rophic system.

From the Central Limit Theorem, we havea pre-assigned small value e

0'0 for which

limt?=

Prob(Dx!x* D(e0)"1 (since p

x"0)

and similarly limt?=

Prob(Dy!y*D(e0)"1 (since

py"0), lim

t?=Prob(Dz!z*D(e

0)"1 (since

pz"0). Hence, the distribution of the x-

population, y-population and z-population willlie within the tolerance intervals (x*!e

0, x*#

e0), (y*!e

0, y*#e

0) and (z*!e

0, z*#e

0),

respectively.

300 J. CHATTOPADHAYAY E¹ A¸.

With the introduction of periodic #uctuationin the system, the solutions of eqn (6) can beobtained as

x (t)"x*exp[u (0)/1(t)#u@(0)/

2(t)

#u@@ (0)/3(t)#g

1(t)],

y (t)"y* exp[v (0)/1(t)#v@ (0)/

2(t)

#v@@(0)/3(t)#g

2(t)],

z (t)"z*exp[w(0)/1(t)#w@(0)/

2(t)

#w@@ (0)/3(t)#g

3(t)]. (9)

For tPR, we have Sx(t)T"x*, Sy(t)T"y*,Sz(t)T"z*. But the variances are di!erent fromzero and given by p2

x"2rbx*3/nj

1K , p2

y"

2y*2(bay*!aj1)/nj

1and p2

z"2radx*y*z*2/

nj21. Now for a di!erent choice of system para-

meters when p2x

is greater than e0

and similarlywhen p2

yand p2

zare also greater than e

0, all the

populations will deviate from the tolerance leveland the system will become unstable around thepositive equilibrium. It is well known that thepopulation will remain stable if the variancesabout the equilibrium level are minimum (May,1973) i.e. the probabilities that the populationswill lie within the tolerance level described pre-viously are maximum.

In terms of system parameters, the deviationsfrom the mean of three populations x, y and z are,respectively, given by

p2x"

2rbK2

nj1A1!

akdr B

3,

p2y"

2bak3

nj1d3

!

2ak2

nd2,

p2z"

2arKknj2

1c2 A1!

akdrBA!s#bK!

akbKdr B

2.

(10)

Our aim is now to estimate the inaccessible para-meters, to minimize the deviations so that thetritrophic system will attain an ecological stablesituation in spite of environmental #uctuation. In

our tritrophic system, the inaccessible parametersare a, b, c and d. Here we are looking for controlof the growth terms of herbivore and parasitoid;for this we need to estimate the critical values ofb and d. Now di!erentiating p2

zpartially with

respect to b and d, respectively, and equating tozero, we obtain the following set of equations:

b"rsd

K(dr!ak), d"

3akbKr (3bK!s)

. (11)

Solving for these, we "nd bc"s(r!3K)/

3K(r!1). We note here that the estimated valueof b depends only on r, s and K (i.e. in terms ofthe accessible parameters of the system). Substi-tuting this critical value of b in the secondequation of (11), we obtain d

c"ak (3K!r)/

r(3K!1). This is a useful result in the sense thatin a real "eld observation, if one can estimate thecritical value for the growth rate of the herbivore(b

c) by this method, one can easily estimate the

critical value for the growth rate of parasitoids(d

c); this may be useful for biological

control.

6. Conclusion

The role of parasitoids and other natural ene-mies in controlling herbivore populations andtheir impact on plant performance has long beenconsidered important for the structure of plantcommunities (Hairston et al., 1960; Price et al.,1980; Price, 1987; Bernays & Graham, 1988).Parasitization, however, is usually not consideredto have an immediate impact on plant perfor-mance. Several recent studies show that parasitiz-ation of herbivores may reduce the feeding rateby these herbivores to such an extent that itincreases seed production in plants that carry theherbivores (Gomez & Zamora, 1994; van Loonet al., 2000; Fritzsche-Hoballah & Turlings,2001). This will obviously not be the case for allparasitoids, as many will not reduce feeding, andin some cases they cause their host to actuallyfeed more (Rahman, 1970; Parker & Pinnell,1973; Byers et al., 1993). However, it appears thatall species of solitary parasitoids of Lepidopterareduce food consumption in their host (van Loonet al., 2000). Thus, even if the parasitoid larvaedo not kill their hosts immediately, their e!ect

PLANT FITNESS*MODEL AND EXPERIMENT 301

on host development can directly bene"t plant"tness.

With the help of mathematical modelling, wehave studied the dynamics of a two-trophic(plant}herbivore) and a three-trophic (plant}her-bivore}parasitoid) system, using parametervalues that fall within the range of the reviewedstudies. The two-trophic model shows that theyield of plants decreases due to herbivore attack,whereas the introduction of parasitoids hasa stabilizing e!ect on the system. We have alsoobserved that a lower threshold value (dependingon the population growth of the parasitoid) isrequired for stability in the tritrophic system,despite the simpli"ed assumptions of our models.More biological realism, e.g. a functional re-sponse of the herbivore and of the prey, a delayede!ect of endoparasites on herbivores, or a para-sitoid speci"city (Berryman, 1992; Tuomi et al.,1994; Holt & Hochberg, 1998; Weis & Hochberg,2000), will be more appropriate and might re-quire additional parameters as well as moreexperimental informations. At this point, di$-culties will arise both from mathematical andexperimental sides. An estimation of inaccessibleparameters will then require some more details ofexperimental "ndings which is not available atpresent.

The use of a mathematical model allows us toidentify key parameters that determine the dy-namics of the biological systems. In the context ofbiological control, the crucial parameter is d, thegrowth rate of the parasitoid. With the classicaltritrophic approach, we found a lower thresholdfor d for the three-species system to persist. Suchan inequality can be useful in the case of failure ofthe biological control. From this lower threshold,one can see that a decrease in a, the &predation'rate of the herbivore, will increase the likelihoodof persistence of the system. This may be achievedwith more resistant varieties of maize. In theideal, noise-free environment depicted by ourmodel, d has no upper bound. However, it maynot be the case in a #uctuating environment, andlarge values of d may generate an overexploita-tion of the parasite, leading to the extinction ofthe herbivore from the system, and ultimately ofthe parasite if no alternative hosts are available.Such a situation may be undesirable because thecrop will then be more vulnerable to immigrant

herbivores. To overcome this situation, theinaccessible parameters are estimated under theassumptions that their values are such as tomaximize the probability of persistence of thesystem. In our case, the growth rate of theherbivore (b) can be found from the estimation ofthe accessible parameters r, s and K (e.g.McCallum, 2000). Once b is known, the popula-tion growth rate of the parasitoid (d) may becomputed and used to estimate the number ofparasitoids needed to successfully control theherbivores. To validate models like ours,plant}herbivore}parasitoid interactions andtheir population dynamics need to be studiedunder realistic "eld situations.

We are grateful to Debal Deb and two anonymousreviewers for their help and comments on themanuscript. This work was supported by a fellowshipfrom the exchange program of the Swiss NSF (grant83R-063157) to JC, by grant from the Swiss Centerof International Agriculture (ZIL) to MEFH, bySwiss NSF grants 31-46237-95 and 31-44459-95 toTCJT, by Swiss NSF grant 31-52566.97, the NovartisFoundation, and partly the NCCR Plant Survival toLFB.

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